According to @BullTheoryio, markets price a 95% chance of a 25 bps Fed cut, but the primary volatility driver will be liquidity signals from Powell’s tone and the Fed’s view on the economy, funding conditions, and inflation rather than the cut itself, source: @BullTheoryio. SOFR has been spiking, indicating bank funding stress and raising the odds that traders should watch for any liquidity relief from the Fed; even a hint of QE or short-term liquidity support would likely ease funding pressure, push bond yields lower, and add bullish momentum to risk assets including BTC, source: @BullTheoryio. A hawkish cut scenario (inflation not fully controlled and labor improving) risks a yield spike and a sell-off in risk assets, with the last hawkish FOMC coinciding with a sharp BTC drop, source: @BullTheoryio; a dovish cut scenario (minimal tariff impact on inflation and a weak labor market) would likely send yields down, lift liquidity expectations, and support a crypto pump, with dovish plus liquidity support turning strongly bullish, dovish only implying a smaller pump, a hawkish cut triggering an October-like sell-off, and no liquidity help keeping markets in sideways action, source: @BullTheoryio.